Is the stock market going to crash?
Finance and crypto
market analysis
SHOW HN2017
Legend
Is the stock market going to crash?
Is the stock market going to crash?
isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com#stock market crash#market valuation#market volatility#household debt
813points
325comments
#8of 2,242 in 2017
Top 1%of 2017 by points
How HN took it
MixedNo clear lean
6 positive, 65 neutral or asking, 6 mixed, 54 critical, out of 131 comments about the project. Thread score -0.36.
Idea: 3 for, 35 againstExecution: 0 for, 16 againstDesign: 3 for, 1 againstPerformance: 0 for, 2 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Clean, simple design and plain-English presentation
From 4 comments
I love the design and phrasing. This is just a well-done website. It would be really interesting to see your collapse pyramid over time. How did it look in 2000? 2008?
avip on HNReally cool idea. As someone that hasn't really investigated the market indicators for collapse this is really eye opening. It really breaks things down into plain english. Hope…
timsayshey on HNOh dang ! That household debt sure is scary. Where's the real time data sourced from? > U.S economic risk as of ... With the click of a button, may be also allow a view of where…
19890903 on HNGood idea for a website, should be able to get you some nice revenue from intermittent visits. You probably want to focus on financial services for your ads. I'm not going to say…
daotoad on HN
Objections
Indicators are weak predictors; market crashes are hard to predict
From 4 comments
A site like this seems dangerous at best. Nobody can predict the stock market. Nobody can predict when a stock market is more likely to crash. This site tries to indicate…
pillowkusis on HNThe metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this…
misja111 on HNThe volatility index, or VIX, has become a popular measurement to reference in the context of predicting the market over the past couple years. The problem is that it does not…
bluetwo on HNYour volatility section seems to be a very poor indicator of a future crash in the manner you are using it. Volatility is not a predictor, but instead a descriptor. An analogy I…
where_do_i_live on HN
Calculation errors and bugs such as NaN values and wrong heat map
From 3 comments
"NaN% more overvalued than just prior to the 2008 financial crisis," I think there might be a few coding errors still lurking in there.
Nursie on HNHow is the heat matrix diagram calculated? It seems to be wrong. Public Debt has a 3.7/10, while it looks like its around 8.5 in the heat diagram. Looking at the individual…
benmarten on HNMarket Volatility section: Current risk: NaN / 10 "Calm waters" (I'm using Edge)
tome on HN
Site broken or blank on some browsers and mobile
From 3 comments
Site just displays a blank page. No error or anything. I think that's a better statement than whatever the app actually does.
omg_ketchup on HNIs this a psychological experiment? All I get on Android Chrome is a white screen.
mcguire on HNSite's broken on mobile: http://imgur.com/BD6gzVZ
tambourine_man on HN
Market overvaluation as GDP ratio ignores overseas revenue
From 3 comments
Can someone with an actual economics degree explain to me whether it's a valid criticism of the "Market cap as % of GDP" metric that many US companies derive value from…
lr4444lr on HNAmerican companies sell products & services outside of the United States. Comparing American GDP with the aggregate value of the US stock-market is deeply misleading, especially…
mxschumacher on HNCould the fact that a lot of US companies book profits overseas and keep them there for tax reasons foil your assumption about the meaning of a high US market cap:domestic GDP…
lg on HN
Requests
Add a historical timeline of indicators
From 3 comments
I love the design and phrasing. This is just a well-done website. It would be really interesting to see your collapse pyramid over time. How did it look in 2000? 2008?
avip on HNOh dang ! That household debt sure is scary. Where's the real time data sourced from? > U.S economic risk as of ... With the click of a button, may be also allow a view of where…
19890903 on HNThis is sooo cool! Great job. One thing that might be helpful is to have a separate (informational) page that indicates what the diamond looked like at other period of economic…
aagha on HN
Explain rationale for each indicator
From 2 comments
I love the idea, the simple design, and the humble tone of the byline ("no one knows for sure, but there are indicators that can help us guess. We can chart these indicators to…
cs702 on HNI've never seen market valuation expressed as market cap as % of GDP. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave the detailed arguments to them. But it would be at least useful to…
runako on HN
Questions
Why does the site report the stock market is closed?
From 2 comments
Says "Stock market is closed" at 10:45AM EDT. Is it really?
forbiddenlake on HNWhy does this site report "the stock market is closed"?
peternicky on HN
Is the DEFCON scale labelled correctly?
From 1 comment
For market overvaluation, it says: 9.1 / 10 "DEFCON 4" DEFCON 5 is peacetime, DEFCON 1 is imminent nuclear war. For example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US reached…
uiri on HN
Alternatives named
Put option prices as a crash betting-market signal
From 1 comment
I think you could estimate much more accurately with the prices of deeply out-of-the-money put options. Those are effectively a betting market on whether stocks will crash or…
apsec112 on HN
Fed balance sheet versus S&P 500 comparison
From 1 comment
Blank page for me. Don't know if it is there but a nice chart is size of the Fed B/S vs S&P 500, since 2005. Suggests a large part of the valuation of stock is generated by QE,…
cm2187 on HN