Tinder Revenue Estimate

Finance and crypto

business model estimation

SHOW HN2018

137points
105comments
#304of 2,155 in 2018
Top 15%of 2018 by points

How HN took it

CuriousMostly questions and neutral comments

9 positive, 23 neutral or asking, 2 mixed, 7 critical, out of 41 comments about the project. Thread score +0.06.

Idea: 6 for, 0 againstExecution: 0 for, 3 againstDesign: 0 for, 2 againstPricing: 1 for, 1 againstDocs: 0 for, 1 against

The thread, comment by comment

Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.

positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker

What HN said

What people liked

  • Interesting idea for decomposing business models

    From 3 comments
    • This is an interesting way of decomposing a business model in general, not just documenting existing companies. I could see something like this chipping away at the Excel models…
      philipodonnell on HN
    • This interface generalizes nicely to estimating any Fermi problem, not just business models. I love it!
      telekid on HN
    • This is really interesting. Thank you!
      nerdponx on HN

Objections

  • Revenue estimate seems too low, especially given subscriber pricing

    From 3 comments
    • I think this number is a massive underestimate of their annual top-line. Based on the cost of a subscription I'd bet it's in the $1B+ range.
      cal5k on HN
    • Agreed. Having worked at a dating app that had a significantly smaller user base, the revenue numbers are definitely low balled.
      BlackjackCF on HN
    • The subscription price varies substantially according to age and region. I also suspect that they make a lot of money from "whales", i.e. people with the most expensive…
      cal5k on HN
  • Design and readability need improvement

    From 3 comments
    • I love the idea here, but I don't find the report very easy to read.
      PaulHoule on HN
    • I like the site's intended purpose, but I agree with others that design needs improvement. Also, perhaps you can source some data from public data (i.e annual report, appannie).
      redgetan on HN
    • in my mind that looks something like a spreadsheet but more structured, say like the old https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TK_Solver There is a large precedent of people writing…
      PaulHoule on HN
  • Sources and confidence of numbers not clearly shown

    From 2 comments
    • Cool! I think evidence-backed modeling is a really interesting idea. As an unsolicited suggestion, I wonder if there's a way to emphasize numbers that are backed by evidence…
      Glench on HN
    • Yeah, but none of that information is surfaced in the high-level report. If I'm reading this I'd like to have an idea of each number's validity.
      Glench on HN

Requests

  • Crowdsourced or collaborative data updates

    From 2 comments
    • Really cool idea. It would be awesome if you could crowdsource the data for any companies through employees - some big companies don't have much transparency on revenue numbers,…
      primitivesuave on HN
    • Yes I've done that manually. In my head I would love for it to be something even more collaborative 'Wikipedia-style' and people would help keep the numbers up to date. Of course…
      ebellity on HN
  • Show ranges and confidence for estimates

    From 2 comments
    • Suggestion: be able to specify ranges for variable estimates, and give ranges for the answers to calculations.
      lifeformed on HN
    • Definitely something I'm thinking about. Maybe even some kind of "confidence interval" of confidence ratio could be added next to an estimate.
      ebellity on HN
  • Shorter number formats like $36.2M

    From 2 comments
    • Feedback: consider ditching the .00 on the numbers and spelling out "million"/"billion." It's a lot easier to quickly read "$36.2 million" than "$36,200,000.00"
      mi100hael on HN
    • Or better yet, $36.2M
      atticusberg on HN
  • Email updates and timeline for financials

    From 1 comment
    • I really like what you're doing here. Two things that I would like as a user: -ability to get updates (pref email) when new companies are added or companies I follow are updated…
      vm on HN

Questions

  • How is data kept up to date

    From 1 comment
    • Cool stuff. I've noticed that some times you source numbers from news articles, which you reference. How do you plan to keep the numbers updated? EDIT: In fact, how have you done…
      fwdpropaganda on HN
  • Where the models come from

    From 1 comment

Alternatives named

  • Excel financial models

    From 1 comment
    • This is an interesting way of decomposing a business model in general, not just documenting existing companies. I could see something like this chipping away at the Excel models…
      philipodonnell on HN
  • AppAnnie

    From 2 comments
    • I like the site's intended purpose, but I agree with others that design needs improvement. Also, perhaps you can source some data from public data (i.e annual report, appannie).
      redgetan on HN
    • I did an internship for a mobile games studio. They had really detailed estimates of competitor revenues because they were able to combine: 1) their own daily revenue from titles…
      oli5679 on HN
  • Nomad List

    From 1 comment
    • You should allow requests to add or alter data, mostly like nomadlist.com do (example [1]). The owner could discuss and accept or reject the request. I think it would enrich the…
      gupir on HN

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