Talent vs. Luck
Learning and science
simulation of research paper
SHOW HN2018
How HN took it
0 positive, 3 neutral or asking, 0 mixed, 4 critical, out of 7 comments about the project. Thread score -0.37.
Idea: 0 for, 3 againstExecution: 0 for, 1 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Useful way to show talent is not guaranteed to lead to success
From 1 comment
> I think you can only "prove" things about the system you construct. Meaning, in reality it has (or could have) little to no basis. I think the author is aware of that and the…
amelius on HN
Objections
Model results only hold for the system constructed, not reality
From 1 comment
Having built models like this by programming before [1]. I think you can only "prove" things about the system you construct. Meaning, in reality it has (or could have) little to…
lettergram on HN
Lucky and unlucky event counts per agent seem unrealistically high
From 1 comment
A key purpose of the original paper is to inform policy to improve public funding of research [1]. Thus, to a first-order approximation, it should reflect realities. However, ...…
nopinsight on HN
Talent distribution described as normal, not uniform, and 0.62 is above average
From 2 comments
Red flag: > People start with the same allotment of capital, and are given a number between 0 and 1 to represent their “talent”. Talent is normally distributed. Maybe the author…
FabHK on HNHaving built models like this by programming before [1]. I think you can only "prove" things about the system you construct. Meaning, in reality it has (or could have) little to…
lettergram on HN
Log-normal fit claim for success data is questionable
From 1 comment
> each around 5-7 events per agent on average [...] In the real world, how many regular people/scientists have that many career-defining events? A significant event every half…
FabHK on HN
Requests
Explain why a 2D simulation is needed at all
From 1 comment
Why does this need to be a 2D simulation? I don't see how geometry comes into it at all. Also worth reading http://bactra.org/weblog/491.html
IshKebab on HN
Correct the attribution wording in the post's first line
From 1 comment
OP, you should correct the first line > I recently came across the paper titled Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure, by A. Pluchino. A. E. Biondo, A.…
thisisit on HN
Questions
Whether the power law comes from temporal correlations in the 2D simulation
From 1 comment
Why does it need to be a simulation at all? The model is essentially a geometric random walk with number of trials N and probability of success in each trial P, with P varying.…
smaddox on HN
Alternatives named
Peter Norvig's economics simulation notebook
From 1 comment
When selecting a model to demonstrate some dynamic behaviour: 1. First select the simplest model that captures some generic and essential. 2. Vary the parameters and introduce…
nabla9 on HN
Uri Wilensky's simpler wealth model
From 1 comment
When selecting a model to demonstrate some dynamic behaviour: 1. First select the simplest model that captures some generic and essential. 2. Vary the parameters and introduce…
nabla9 on HN