Covid-19 Interactive Model
Infrastructure
epidemiology simulation
SHOW HN2020
Legend
Covid-19 Interactive Model
Hi everyone, My name is Nicholas Noll, a computational biologist and co-developer of the above tool.
neherlab.org#covid-19 model#epidemic simulation#hospital capacity#sir model#interactive simulation
How HN took it
10 positive, 17 neutral or asking, 1 mixed, 8 critical, out of 36 comments about the project. Thread score -0.06.
Performance: 1 for, 3 againstExecution: 0 for, 3 againstIdea: 1 for, 1 againstDesign: 1 for, 1 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Useful, appreciated tool
From 2 comments
Thank you for providing a very nice tool that is of use for all of us. Much appreciated!
toddm on HNThank you for making such a great tool. Do you have any plans that will allow the death rate to be adjusted once ICU overflow kicks in? There is going to be a much higher death…
patrickbuckley on HN
Objections
Default parameters such as mitigation curve and R0 seem pessimistic or unjustified
From 1 comment
After reading about the implementation of this model and experimenting with different a while, I've made some observations about its behavior and especially about the values that…
Ameo on HN
Model ignores ICU capacity effects on death rate (later added by maker)
From 2 comments
Someone notices in another thread that in this model the death number does not depend on the number of beds or ICUs.
gus_massa on HNWe are working on this! It originally started out just as a visual representation however now it factors into the model. Check out branch feat/hospital-bed-model
nbnoll on HN
Interface is confusing and hard to read
From 2 comments
Interface is a not great. I wanted to compare US model to what's actually happening (I've been graphing the US curves with public data). Top dropbox is Scenario. Default is…
throwaway_pdp09 on HNI’d be interested in helping out with the front end. Having some issues with display on my iPhone SE. Thanks for the awesome tool!
reubens on HN
Based on China data, not applicable elsewhere
From 1 comment
I closed this after "based on data from China". That's almost as bad as basing it on US data.
ouid on HN
Requests
Make severity and fatality assumptions editable or uncertainty-aware
From 2 comments
Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the "Severity assumptions" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, which is basically an…
guscost on HNIt would be really nice if the uncertainty of fatality and severity information we have right now could be incorporated and visualized. Current reports by the CDC and info from…
jupp0r on HN
Model how specific activities and closures map to mitigation levels
From 1 comment
Just a suggestion, but some general thoughts on what activities correspond to what levels of mitigation - eg. are schools closing at 80%, restaurants at 70%? What activities…
robhunter on HN
Allow death rate to change when ICU overflow occurs
From 1 comment
Thank you for making such a great tool. Do you have any plans that will allow the death rate to be adjusted once ICU overflow kicks in? There is going to be a much higher death…
patrickbuckley on HN
Questions
Why does reducing infectious period increase the steepness of the curve?
From 1 comment
Why is it when I reduce the infectious period, the steepness of the infection curve increases? That seems wrong.
titzer on HN
Does the US death count projection understate reality?
From 1 comment
Does it scare anyone that the North / Fast setting for the USA puts the death count at ~1/2 reality for the past few days? Does this indicate that it spread faster than fast?…
chisleu on HN
Alternatives named
Imperial College agent-based model
From 2 comments
Shouldn't this tool allow for modifying the numbers in the "Severity assumptions" section, too? This uses the same estimate from the Imperial College model, which is basically an…
guscost on HNNo worries. I think it's also important to note that the Imperial College study that's gotten a lot of attention recently is an agent-based model - i.e. they simulate actual…
nbnoll on HN
Sneezemaps
From 1 comment
I built Sneezemaps.com to correlate symptoms & confirmed cases US: https://sneezemap.com/?zone=eyJjZW50ZXIiOls0MC4yNzk1MjU2Njg4MTI5MSwtOTguODc2OTUzMTI1MDAwMDFdLCJ6b29tIjo1fQ…
billions on HN