Causal (buy-to-rent model)
Finance and crypto
investment modelling
SHOW HN2019
353points
243comments
#78of 2,195 in 2019
Top 4%of 2019 by points
How HN took it
MixedNo clear lean
8 positive, 27 neutral or asking, 5 mixed, 22 critical, out of 62 comments about the project. Thread score -0.28.
Execution: 0 for, 15 againstIdea: 5 for, 7 againstDesign: 2 for, 0 against
The thread, comment by comment
Each row is a top-level comment and its replies, in HN's order. Select a cell to open that comment on HN.
positive neutral or mixed critical about another commenter or something else the maker
What HN said
What people liked
Clean visualisations and simple presentation.
From 1 comment
Great visualizations and simple clean presentation. I tried to use a number of these simple tools to evaluate investment properties but they were usually too high level. I ended…
granto on HN
Useful demo of the simulation tool.
From 1 comment
This is pretty cool. One thing that feels like a serious oversight though is that it isn't factoring in taxes. Rental income is taxable income. If you depreciate the property to…
anm89 on HN
Objections
Ignores inflation.
From 2 comments
Calculations of this model are misleading. One hugely important parameter missing: inflation rate. This would tell us what part of that 2.1 million in 30 years is real return and…
raviolo on HNWhere's inflation in this model?
lazyjones on HN
Omits property tax, maintenance, vacancy and taxes.
From 3 comments
This definitely is missing property tax and insurance, as well as a bucket for maintenance cost, ex, property management (8-10% monthly estimate), vacancy (5-10% monthly…
tonywe64 on HNAs others have pointed out this model is oversimplified and doesn’t break out maintenance and taxes. 1% is unreasonably low for both considering that 1% is a low property tax…
burlesona on HNThis is pretty cool. One thing that feels like a serious oversight though is that it isn't factoring in taxes. Rental income is taxable income. If you depreciate the property to…
anm89 on HN
Appreciation and variance modelling is mathematically off.
From 2 comments
The math on appreciation rate is a bit off because of how risk adds up to itself over time. For example, if you assumed 3 +/- 3% appreciation, then the calculator applies that…
smallnamespace on HNPretty cool demo for causal.app. Feedback on the framework itself: * I found the interface to widen/narrow the variance of ranges painful to use. Why not just let me plug in an…
usaar333 on HN
Ignores transaction costs and illiquidity of property.
From 1 comment
As others have pointed out this model is oversimplified and doesn’t break out maintenance and taxes. 1% is unreasonably low for both considering that 1% is a low property tax…
burlesona on HN
Requests
Model inflation.
From 2 comments
Where's inflation in this model?
lazyjones on HNIt does not seem to take either inflation or lost growth on the down-payment. These two factors have a huge impact on evaluating property against other investments. It would be…
beejiu on HN
Show annual return percentage.
From 1 comment
Nice. Some questions: - How are you modeling property tax payments? - Would be nice to show the annual return for the investment. You have a chart, I can read it so see whether…
11thEarlOfMar on HN
Support multi-family and house hacking.
From 1 comment
Hey, I really like the app and have signed up. One thing I would add is multi- family units. Even better would be the concept of "house hacking" or buying a multi-family and…
frankbreetz on HN
Questions
Where is inflation in the model?
From 1 comment
Where's inflation in this model?
lazyjones on HN
How is property tax modelled?
From 1 comment
Nice. Some questions: - How are you modeling property tax payments? - Would be nice to show the annual return for the investment. You have a chart, I can read it so see whether…
11thEarlOfMar on HN
Alternatives named
Guesstimate
From 1 comment
I think this is supposed to be more about demonstrating the simulation modelling tool than about houses and rent. The tool looks like a copy of getguesstimate.com. What's new or…
zestyping on HN
Spreadsheets and Excel
From 2 comments
It seems the simulation just gives the upper bound and lower bound based on the input ranges. A spreadsheet model can do the same thing by running the model with different input…
ww520 on HNGreat visualizations and simple clean presentation. I tried to use a number of these simple tools to evaluate investment properties but they were usually too high level. I ended…
granto on HN
REITs such as VNQ
From 2 comments
Any data supporting the appreciation of 4% a year? This seems socially much more acceptable to taking a loan and then invest the money in stocks for example, but to me is not…
jgr447 on HNThe huge advantage of housing is that the government essentially supports infrastructure to get massive leverage. With 1:5 or 1:10 leverage, 10% appreciation with 1:10 leverage…
achenatx on HN